Safe Withdrawal Rate Calculator
Explore the 4% rule and other withdrawal rates. See a year-by-year projection and a Monte Carlo estimate of success rate across many market paths, plus a note on sequence-of-returns risk.
Initial annual withdrawal
$50,000
Monte Carlo success rate
100.0%
Portfolio lasted the full period in simulated paths
Deterministic ending balance
$384,216
Constant return each year (no volatility)
- Median ending balance (MC)
- $384,319
- 10th percentile (bad paths)
- $371,224
- 90th percentile (good paths)
- $397,173
Sample path (constant expected return)
| Year | Start | Withdraw | End |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $1,250,000 | $50,000 | $1,201,800 |
| 2 | $1,201,800 | $48,072 | $1,155,459 |
| 3 | $1,155,459 | $46,218 | $1,110,904 |
| 4 | $1,110,904 | $44,436 | $1,068,068 |
| 5 | $1,068,068 | $42,723 | $1,026,883 |
| 6 | $1,026,883 | $41,075 | $987,286 |
| 7 | $987,286 | $39,491 | $949,217 |
| 8 | $949,217 | $37,969 | $912,615 |
| 9 | $912,615 | $36,505 | $877,424 |
| 10 | $877,424 | $35,097 | $843,591 |
Shows first 10 years of the constant-return path. Withdrawals are a fixed % of the portfolio at the start of each year.
Sequence risk is real: the same average return can produce very different outcomes depending on the order of returns.